Global Trade Watch – FTA Article

Has Australia compromised its position in the Asian region by aligning itself
strategically with the United States? Our region’s largest emerging economy,
China, is reported to be preparing itself for a military confrontation with
the US, and doubts are emerging that Australia can afford to provide the same
support to the US as it did in the Iraq invasion.

Jane Drake-Brockman, Australian National University trade specialist, argues
that Australia’s motivation to pursue a free-trade agreement with the US has
all to do with foreign interests and defence and little to do with trade.
Brockman believes Australia’s motivation is not economically motivated. She
says “…no economic justification has been identified, not least in the
consultancy reports prepared on this issue.”

Meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party leadership in convinced that some form
of confrontation with the United States could come soon. Senior China analyst
Willy Wo-Lap Lam believes that Beijing has been homing in on its domestic and
security policies to counter the perceived threat of US “neo-imperialism”.
The secretive Leading Group on National Security, which co-ordinates the
Chinese Communist Party’s policies in areas including diplomacy, defence and
energy, has been running a series of meetings since early March. To the
uninitiated, the linchpin may seem to be North Korea. Although it
is “understood” the LGNS believes that the US will take on North Korea as
early as this winter, we are more likely to see tensions arise between the US
and China over Iran.

Iran has been trying to insulate itself from the US by expanding dialogue
with the European Union and strengthening its protective ties with Syria,
Lebanon, India, Russia and China. However, as US President George W. Bush has
so willingly demonstrated over Iraq, this may not be enough. With a US
election looming, US forces along the border, and Iran’s nuclear program away
from fruition, the future may seem a foregone conclusion.

But China’s new president, Hu Jintao, is no pushover. Chinese diplomats in
the Middle East have been hearing harsh criticism from usually friendly
governments. They believe that China’s stance on Iraq betrayed its
principles, casting doubt on its reliability as an ally. Now Hu is reported
to support the idea that China’s national stature demands it take firm
positions, even if it means angering Washington.

The risk is that Prime Minister John Howard’s “all the way with the USA”
approach may well result in Australia being caught up in events beyond its
control. A former head of the United Nations weapons inspection team, Richard
Butler, recently commented that the US policy on tactical nuclear weapons
indicates the Bush Administration has decided that its domestic protection
overrides any international laws or considerations.

Butler ponders what happens when the world’s most powerful country – as with
the most powerful people within a domestic society – considers itself to be
above the law. “What happened: Citizens or countries decided the law is no
good.”

One of the main criticisms levelled at the US was its unwillingness to
exhaust all diplomatic means of avoiding the war in Iraq. With the US intent
on regime change in Tehran, our region could quickly unravel.

If Australia’s motivation is primarily concerned with military outcomes, the
country will have squandered a great opportunity for better commercial
relations in this region. Hu now seems interested in closer ties with
Germany, France and Russia. Beijing’s National Defence University has even
suggested that China abandon its long-held policy of non-alignment and enter
a clear alliance with the three European nations to counterbalance the US.

If Australia should choose to go down the US-led path, it may be very
difficult to extricate the county from any future mess.